Leonardo DiCaprio on “One Battle After Another.”
And once more, it is time when even the crustiest, most cynical film critic — “Awards mean nothing!” — suddenly seems to care about The Oscars.
There is a reason for that. Shallow or not, The Academy Awards are a huge part of Hollywood history. And as much as we insist that they don’t determine artistic worth, they do matter — for whose careers advance, for what kind of risks Hollywood will take, for what sort of movies you’re going to see next year.
So who is going to win this year? Who can we expect to see on Sunday night holding that gold-plated statue aloft?
It’s a tough year for predictions. Of the six major categories, I’d guess that only half seem to be already relatively set. The others are toss-ups, with two or even three strong contenders for the prize.
So, here is my annual handicapping, and how I did it.
As always, I looked at the winners in the seven biggest Oscar prelims — awards given by The New York Film Critics Circle, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association, The Golden Globes, The British Academy of Film and Television Arts, The Producers Guild, The Directors Guild, and The Screen Actors Guild (which just rebranded their awards as The Actors). Then I tried to weigh their influence.
Note that the first three organizations are made up of journalists — very few of whom, if any, are in The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which actually votes for The Oscars. Also the three guilds only honor work done by fellow members; SAG, for example, does not give out a directing prize.
Note, too, that each group has its own peculiarities. The acting prizes given by LAFCA are gender-neutral (although this year they ended up honoring, equally, actors and actresses). The overstuffed Globes not only begin by saluting six nominees in each category but (rather arbitrarily) split their major awards between musical/comedy and dramatic genres.
And then there is the biggest, most intangible factor: The feelings of Academy voters themselves.
Is the nominee a breakthrough artist who could use an endorsement, or a veteran overdue for some acknowledgement? Are they a fond and familiar Hollywood figure or an outsider, or troublemaker? Did the performer play against type? Did the director pull off a large and complicated production? As an audience member, did you walk out of the theater feeling better than when you walked in?
Prognosticators like me carefully consider all of this and then … make a guess. Because as the great screenwriter William Goldman once observed, the only certainty in Hollywood is nobody knows anything.
Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners.”
Or at least until March 15, when it all airs live on ABC, starting at 7 p.m.
ACTOR
The Field: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”); Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”); Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”); Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”); Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”)
The Race: Close — of these contenders, only DiCaprio has yet to win anything. Chalamet won the GG award for comedy, Moura won the GG award for drama (and the NYFCC prize as well). Hawke scored at LAFCA and Jordan won at SAG. (BAFTA gave their prize to Robert Aramayo for “I Swear,” a movie yet to open here.) It’s a heavily East Coast field (both Hawke and Jordan have Jersey ties, and Chalamet is from New York), which is never an advantage for nominees. Still, the race seems to be between Jordan and Chalamet — both overdue. The possible deciding factor? The cocky Chalamet seems to rather immodestly agree that he’s overdue.
Who Will Win: Jordan
Who Should Win: Hawke.
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Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal in “Hamnet.”
ACTRESS
The Field: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”); Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”); Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”); Emma Stone (“Bugonia”); Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”)
The Race: An even more impressive lineup than the men’s. In another time, Hollywood darling Hudson would be the comeback queen for her biopic turn. But times have changed. She hasn’t won anything so far, and neither has regular Oscar darling Stone, or Reinsve. Instead, it has been a duel between Buckley (who picked up the GG prize for drama, along with awards from SAG, and BAFTA) and Byrne (who won the GG prize for comedy, along with NYFCC and LAFCA honors). But is Byrne’s movie too in-your-face for Academy voters? Will members have second thoughts about Buckley after seeing her in the recent flop “The Bride!”
Who Will Win: Buckley
Who Should Win: Buckley
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Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another.”
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Field: Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”); Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”); Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”); Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”); Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”)
The Race: Neither Elordi nor Lindo have picked up any big prizes so far. Meanwhile del Toro won one from the NYFCC, Penn won both SAG and BAFTA, and Skarsgård was honored by LAFCA and the GG. So going by my own theories, it’s down to either Hollywood veteran Penn or first-time nominee Skarsgård, right? Actually, I’m not so sure. Skarsgård’s work may have been a little quiet for voters; they may also think that the prickly Penn, who already has two Oscars, has enough. And there is a wild card in the veteran Lindo, who deserves something, if only for the quiet dignity he has maintained over this long, and sometimes embarrassing, awards season.
Who Will Win: Penn
Who Should Win: Penn
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Amy Madigan in “Weapons.”
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Field: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”); Amy Madigan (“Weapons”); Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”); Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”)
The Race: An interesting one. Fanning, who did some nicely layered work, has been overlooked by the big groups, as has Lilleaas. Of the remaining contenders, Madigan was honored by the NYFCC and SAG, Mosaku picked up a prize at BAFTA and Taylor won at LAFCA and the GG. So how to handicap? Well, there wasn’t much chatter about Mosaku until the BAFTA prize (where the Brit may have had an advantage). On the other hand, Taylor gets extra points for a breakthrough, Madigan for a comeback. Both have been campaigning hard, but not obnoxiously (hear that, Chalamet?). So will the Oscars reward youthful promise or veteran endurance?
Who Will Win: Madigan
Who Should Win: Madigan
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DIRECTOR
The Field: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”); Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”); Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”); Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”); Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”)
The Race: The awards industry tries to keep the suspense going as long as possible — how else are they going to sell those “For Your Consideration” ads? — but sometimes winners just feel preordained. Helen Mirren in 2006 for “The Queen.” Colin Firth in 2010 for “The King’s Speech.” Running the table this year? Anderson, who picked up Best Director honors from the NYFCC, LAFCA, BAFTA, GG and the DGA. There are other worthy choices out there — Coogler deftly mixed monster and metaphor in “Sinners,” and Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” was a pure amphetamine rush. But after giving us decades of great films, this feels like Anderson’s year.
Who Will Win: Anderson
Who Should Win: Anderson
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PICTURE
The Field: “The Secret Agent”; “Bugonia”; “Marty Supreme”;” Train Dreams”; “F1”; “Sinners”; “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “One Battle After Another”; “Sentimental Value”
The Race: Another not-very-close one. Although they had their champions among critics and audiences, “The Secret Agent,” “Bugonia,” “Marty Supreme,” “Train Dreams,” “Sentimental Value,” “Frankenstein” and “F1” have failed to pick up any major Best Picture prizes (while the Academy relegated the NYFCC pick, “It Was Just an Accident,” to the Best Foreign Film category). Of the remaining contenders, “Sinners” won Best Ensemble, the top SAG prize, while the GG prize for drama went to “Hamnet.” “One Battle After Another,” though, got everything else — the GG prize for comedy or musical, and top honors from The PGA, The LAFCA and BAFTA.
What Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
What Should Win: “Train Dreams.”
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